Could we see the Northern Lights this week (2/1/22)?

I heard there could be a chance at see the northern lights tonight (2/1/22). Would someone with any knowledge on this subject let me know if they have a minute? Thanks.

A group of sun-watching satellites have detected a burst of activity on our sun this week. The Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite shows the sunspots associated with magnetic storms on the sun:

On January 30, the SOHO satellite caught this animated view of the Sun spewing out material from its outer layers. These “coronal mass ejections” send out the high-energy particles that can produce the Northern Lights effect on Earth.

All of this means that, yes, conditions are right for a low-level geomagnetic storm over the next two days — not enough to disrupt power grids, but possibly strong enough to generate the Northern Lights effect for parts of North America.

Both the NOAA and National Weather Service also offer a Space Weather Prediction service, which includes a forecast of the aurora (Northern Lights) activity that’s updated every 30 minutes.

You can access the NOAA’s latest Aurora Forecast here.

Now, for the big question: will viewers in Geauga County, Ohio, get to see the Northern Lights?

The short answer is “possibly.” Conditions are right for an aurora that’s brighter and more-widespread than usual. However, this doesn’t guarantee that the Northern Lights will be visible to humans living in northern Ohio (around 41.5° north latitude).

Though rare, auroras are sometimes visible from here: as recently as 2003, Geauga County observers were able to see the Northern Lights with their unaided eyes.

(Photographers who take long-exposure photographs have been able to collect images of the Northern Lights many times since. However, cameras have a great advantage over unaided human eyeballs!)

Another complicating factor is the possibility of clouds blocking our view of anything in the sky over the next few days.

(As usual, satellites can help! The GOES-East weather satellite offers a high-altitude view of cloud cover in the Great Lakes region.)

Everybody wants this to be the aurora of the century, but it might not live up to the hype. However, you can’t win if you don’t play, right?

If skies are clear, head out and take a look towards the northern sky for a chance to spot a glow in the air. Best of luck, Geauga County!

-Naturalist (“Astro-Nat”) Chris Mentrek